CAREERS NOW 01-20-08

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Tips For Recession Jitters

DEAR JOYCE: I am a branch bank employee in Texas. You can't read the newspaper or watch TV news without seeing scary headlines about job cuts, including those at banks. What are some recession-safe jobs? I lack less than a semester to finish my degree. Do you think I should finish my degree at night or try to get a second job even if it doesn't pay much? - K.C.

Let economists and politicians debate our nation's recession status but 2008 isn't shaping up as a model year for most working people. Yes, recruiters report that they're still scrambling to snare highly-qualified candidates in some fields, continuing what they call "the war for talent," but the bulk of the U.S. workforce faces changing times with a softer job market right now.

CREDENTIAL FIRST. Finish your degree as quickly as possible because the employment bar goes up higher when there are plenty of job seekers, even when a sheepskin isn't really needed to do the job. Why? Because in a mushy job market, employers are drenched in job seekers, making the education requirement a screening tool that saves recruiters time. Moreover, in today's digital recruiting process, software gatekeepers maximize that screen by shutting out resumes that don't satisfy the employer's requisite buzzwords, such as "degree required."

RECESSION-RESISTANT. No job is recession-proof. But some occupations survive economic tumbles better than others, such as elevator repairer. Think about it: People in tall buildings have to go up and down regardless of macroeconomic trends, the continuing softness of the housing market, rising oil prices and a credit crunch that can make life difficult for small business owners who collectively do most of the hiring. Some observations:

- Although it's harder to catalog recession-resistant occupations or industries than it was 10 years ago - due chiefly to technology and globalization - "need" still trumps "want."

- Jobs with fizz when the economy goes flat are more often found in necessity industries (food, energy, healthcare) than in industries dealing with luxury goods or services (fine jewelry, pricy entertainment, massage). In tight times, consumers repair, rather than buy new, which makes jobs risky that are concerned with new houses, expensive appliances, new autos, furniture, carpeting and other big ticket products that may require bank loans.

- Government jobs have always been save havens in financial storms, but if this one worsens you can be sure the competition for those jobs will stretch from sea to shining sea.

- A relatively fresh bright spot: Smaller, new-technology businesses (especially those with government contracts) located in communities surrounding a research university are sheltered from a recession storm.

But cable and phone companies, which used to be bulletproof from downturns, report losing revenues from non-paying customers across all consumer lines with the possible exception of wireless voice accounts; a major telecom is whacking several thousand jobs and closing offices.

- Now that the concept of job security is a quaint notion, to get ahead of the curve in evaluating your chances of an involuntary move, take into account factors outside your own sterling performance -- factors that you can't control: how well your organization is managed, the size of your department (the smaller the department, the fewer people there are to let go), whether your community revolves around a single industry (automobiles, farming), and whether your company is a prime target for takeover.

TOP OF YOUR GAME? If your unit has, say, 25 people and all but 10 are let go, are you likely to be a prized survivor? If not, or if your company hasn't been profitable or uses obsolete technology that won't boost your value in the job market, quietly look for the nearest exit before the market is swimming in job seekers.

CHEERIER NEWS. Since you live in Texas, here's a much happier word from Tony Beshara, president of Babich & Associates, a well-established placement and recruitment firm in Dallas. Dr. Beshara tells me that 2007 was a very good year in which his firm made hundreds of placements.

"It seems that individuals are fearful of the 'recession' but they are getting jobs. People who are still employed look over their shoulders more often than they used to and are willing to change jobs at the drop of a hat because they feel like their company will pull the plug on them at any time. So they want to keep their options open."

Email Joyce
Sorry, the volume of mail makes personal replies impossible.